Ecosystem Modeling Tried to Predict Osama’s Possible Whereabouts – in 2009


“Geographers Had Predicted Osama’s Possible Whereabouts” – ScienceInsider*. I had not seen this 2009 paper that is now getting renewed interest with Osama Bin Laden’s discovery and death, which applied biogeographic theories to create a probabilistic spatial model to predict his occurrence. Thomas Gillespie and John Agnew, geography professors at UCLA, and their more enterprising undergraduate students in their remote sensing class asked biogeographic questions in light of available remote sensing data to address the probabilistic occurrence of an individual, instead of a species. Certainly a novel twist to modeling, and with incomplete but public information on their target, they formed a hypothesis.